Well, what we DO know about the 2021 draft is that the first three teams will take a QB.
Jax at 1.1 will definitely take Trevor Lawrence.
The Jets just traded Sam Darnold away and the 49ers are trying to figure out what to do about Jimmy Garoppolo; they traded up to #3…so that’s a given. The question is going to be: “what QB will they take?”
My best guess is that the Jets will take Justin Fields at 1.2; Fields is the best prospect outside of Lawrence, he has the size and arm strength. He’s also a high-character kid who led the effort by B1G players to get onto the field in 2020.
49ers will take Trey Lance at 1.3 (I don’t believe the hype around Mac Jones). Shanahan will want the feak athlete over the rest of the group. The media is saying Mac Jones because that’s what John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan WANT them to say. It won’t be Mac Jones.
Atlanta at 1.4 is where things get interesting. They have Matt Ryan, who is serviceable so they don’t necessarily NEED a QB right now. Micah Parsons (Penn State) will be there and that kid is a freak show. Falcons should, and probably will take Micah Parsons. They need defense, Parsons is the best defensive prospect in this draft.
Cincinnati at 1.5 will likely take Jamar Chase. He’s familiar with Joe Burrow, and the Bengals need a legit #1 WR. Chase is that guy. This isn’t a difficult pick, even for the Bungles.
Miami at 1.6 could go one of two directions: WR or Pitts. The Dolphins aren’t taking a QB here and they know that Tua needs some legit weapons. My feeling is that because the draft is so dang deep at WR, the pick here will be Kyle Pitts.
Of course, someone could always trade up in front of these teams (except the first 2) and snag a player…but this is how the first 6 picks should go if things don’t change.
Predicting QB success in the NFL is nearly impossible because there are so many factors surrounding the player that are beyond his control. Is the GM any good? Is the ownership steady? Is the coach on the hot seat? Can the coach…coach? The only thing we can say for sure is that good players going to good coaches succeed. The success of a QB really does depend on the franchise into which he is drafted. Carson Palmer could have been a Hall of Fame QB…but he got drafted by the Bengals. Tom Brady was a struggling player at Michigan who could never nail down the starting job in college…but he was drafted by the Patriots and the greatest coach in the history of the sport…
- Trevor Lawrence, Clemson – will be a stud. The kid is amazing, he has all the tools and he’s going to have a great HBC. Lock that up for the next 10 years. …next
- Justin Fields, Ohio State – could be fine, could be great, except he’s going to be drafted by the Jets…who are a terrible franchise. If the new coach and GM there can change the culture, then Fields could be great. If not, he’ll end up on the trash heap. The knock on Fields is his tendency to NOT throw into tight coverage. They are going to have to coach him up. I watched him play a lot last year and he was always throwing to guys who were either wide open…or he’d tuck the ball and run. He had one game where he really showed that talent, and that was against Clemson in the semi final.
- Trey Lance, North Dakota State – This kid is Josh Allen all over again. Big, strong arm, athletic, comes from a small school. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is a good young coach and if he gets Lance, the kid will be fantastic.
- Mac Jones, Alabama – Played behind the best O-Line in football, with a Heisman candidate at RB and a Heisman winner at WR. He doesn’t throw the ball with great velocity and never really had to throw into tight coverage. Go back and look at the tape of the SEC Championship Game, look at the coverage windows he was throwing into vs. the coverage that Kyle Trask was throwing into… night-and-day difference.
- Zach Wilson, BYU is 6’3″ and weighs a little more than my kid. Eat a sandwich, dude. Look, the kid made some great plays, but in the only game where a team put pressure on him for real, he didn’t fare all that well…and that team was Coastal Carolina. Not Alabama or Georgia or Ohio State…COASTAL CAROLINA.
- Kyle Trask, Florida – Heart says he will be good, head says maybe not. I’m not 100% on Kyle’s arm strength…its just OK. The great QBs in the NFL have arm talent and I’m just not sold on that for Trask. What I am sold on are the intangibles. His decision-making at the line, his leadership and work ethic. That’s what Peyton Manning had over others. I’m in no way saying that Trask will be Manning, but if he can use his mind and work to overcome that arm, then he might find a starting spot in the NFL. I’d like to see him go to New Orleans or Los Angeles (Rams)…both of those coaches know how to mold their offense around a QB.
- Kellen Mond, Texas A&M – Mond was an enigma for the Aggies. He was really, really good his Senior Year under Jimbo Fisher, but was still wildly inconsistent. He’s got great size and arm strength, but he is a project. He’d be a great fit at somewhere like Pittsburgh or LA (Rams) where he can sit for a year or two behind an older QB and develop. If he’s asked to start right away, I don’t think it will work.